For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. This page is also available as Markdown.

Measure impact

See churn, health and revenue move per audience, per test and per Co-pilot

Everything in Churned ends here: did the audience, the workflow and the Co-pilot change what customers do? This is step 5 of the Churned journey. Three views answer the question at different levels.

Three levels of measurement

Level
Question
Where

Base

Is the customer base healthier than a period ago? Health level movements, churn per health level, sentiment, engagement and ARR over time

Experiment

Did treated customers churn less than the control group? Churn rate, churn loss and average loss per group, with a winner

Co-pilot

Which action works for which customers, and how much uplift does the model create over the default action?

Copilots page and Co-pilot

How uplift is measured

  • Random splits create the control. A workflow branch that receives no action, or the current default action, is the baseline every other branch is compared with.

  • The Co-pilot keeps a permanent exploration group. A small share of each audience, typically 5 percent, is always assigned at random. It acts as a rolling control group and as the source of unbiased data for retraining. The uplift of the Co-pilot is the difference in outcome between customers who received the model's chosen action and this exploration group.

  • Outcomes are the same metrics as elsewhere. Churn is the churner definition with the one-week grace period; value is ARR; reactivation is a new subscription after churn. A test's churn rate is churners divided by contacts in the group.

  • Read results per segment. Both the A/B view and the Co-pilot view break results down by channel, product, client type or engagement, because an action rarely works equally for everyone.

The page How A/B tests train the next best action describes the full loop from random split to model retraining, and Churn prediction goals explains why impact, not model accuracy, is the goal.

Per vertical

The outcome metric changes with the business model: churn and ARR for subscriptions and structural donors, repeat orders and retention rate for e-commerce and non-structural donors, reactivations for win-back audiences. The Metrics vocabulary maps the names.

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